Global Imbalances, Finance and Economic Stability

 Friday May 25, 2012

Founders Hall Room 126


The past few years have been remarkable for their degree of economic uncertainty. Not only has there been a recession on a scale not seen for nearly a century, but very large trade imbalances and asset imbalances have built up – followed by a sovereign debt crisis in Europe and potentially in the other OECD economies. Despite a great deal of recent work on these topics, it is clear that we are far from understanding the causes and potential resolution of these difficulties. The aim of this meeting is to take a deeper look at some of the mechanisms that lie behind these extreme imbalances and the policies that might be used to make the financing of our economies more robust and sustainable.


Friday May 25, 2012

Founders Hall Room 126

Tentative Conference programPDF icon

8:45 – 9:00 am  Registration

9:00 – 9:30 am  Welcome Remarks

Speaker: Roger Stough, Vice President for Research, George Mason University


SESSION 1:   Capital Flows               

9:30 – 10:30 am  Chairperson:  Tom Willett

Paper 1:   ‘Tools for Managing Financial-Stability Risks from Capital Inflows,’  Marcos Chamon and Jonathan Ostry, IMF

Discussant: Michele Fratianni

10:30 – 10:45 am  Coffee Break

SESSION 2:  Capital Controls 

10:45 – 12:30 pm Chairperson: Javier Beverinotti

Paper 1: ‘Global Imbalances in a World of Inflexible Real Exchange Rates and Capital Controls,’ Juan Carlos Martinez Oliva, Peterson Institute for International Economics; Andrew Hughes Hallett,George Mason University

Paper 2:    ‘Do Capital Controls Reduce the Volatility of Gross Capital Inflows?: Intended and Unintended Consequences’ Ramkishen Rajan, LKY School, National University of Singapore and George Mason University

Discussant: TBA

12:30 – 1:30 pm Lunch

SESSION 3:  Exchange Rates 

1:30 – 3:15 pm   Chairperson: Sonia Ketkar

Paper 1:  ‘Exchange Rate Misalignments in the Frequency Domain,’  Axel Grossman and Alexei Orlov, Radford University

Paper 2:    De Jure versus De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes in Sub-Sahara Africa,’   Slavi Slavov, IMF/Pomona College

Discussant: Andrew Hughes Hallett

3:15 – 3:30 pm  Coffee Break

SESSION 4:  Foreign Currency Reserves and Financial Fragility

3:30 – 5:15 pm   Chairperson: Andrew Hughes Hallett

Paper 1:  ‘To Have or to Hoard? The Political Economy of International Reserves,’ David Leblang,UniversityofVirginia; Thomas Pepinsky,Cornell University

Paper 2:   ‘Capital Flow Reversals, Sudden Stops, and International Reserve Adequacy: Further Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis,’ Levan Efremidze, Pepperdine University; Ozan Sula, Western Washington University; Tom Willett, Claremont Graduate University

Discussant: Ramkishen Rajan


SESSION 5:   Sovereign Debt and Global Imbalances

5:15 – 6:15 pm Chairperson: Ramkishen Rajan

Paper 1:    ‘External Imbalances and Financial Fragility in the Euro Area,’ Pietro Alessandrini, Università Politecnica delle Marche and MoFiR; Michele Fratianni, Indiana University; Andrew Hughes Hallett, George Mason University; Andrea Presbitero, Università Politecnica delle Marche and MoFiR

Discussant:  Tom Willett

6:30 – 8:00 pm   Reception and Dinner

See the links below for more information on previous research forums